What I learnt from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Incerto series

Taleb’s writings discuss Black Swan Events, which are unpredictable shocks, akin to the fat tails of a Gaussian distribution. Examples include the Covid pandemic and the AI revolution. Many of these events represent Knightian uncertainties, which, unlike traditional “risks” are immeasurable due to a lack of historical data. These occurrences may exhibit nonlinearity, where small changes can lead to significant effects. Patterned approaches, as suggested by the law of large numbers, would fail in such scenarios. Bruce Lee’s ‘Be Water’ philosophy provides guidance in overcoming these challenges. Fragile entities tend to crumble and become extinct under the pressure of the change-wave. In contrast, it’s the anti-fragile, Darwinian, cold-blooded, Machiavellian, and teleological Fat Tonies who ride and thrive on the wave.